Data for the United States show that the incumbent party tends to win the election if: I. personal disposable income is growing.
II. the inflation rate is low.
III. the political party has not been in power for too many continuous terms.
I, II, and III I and II only I only I and III only
The correct answer is I, II, and III.
All three factors can influence the likelihood of the incumbent party winning an election:
I. Personal disposable income is growing - When people have more disposable income, they may feel more positive about the economy and the incumbent party's performance, leading to a higher likelihood of re-election.
II. The inflation rate is low - Low inflation generally indicates a stable economy, which can also favor the incumbent party as voters may associate economic stability with their leadership.
III. The political party has not been in power for too many continuous terms - While incumbency can be an advantage, if a party has been in power for too long, voters may seek change, making this factor relevant as well.
Thus, all three factors can contribute to the incumbent party's chances of winning an election.